According to recent polling, the race between Attorney General Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo remains within the margin of error with Ford closing the gap. The most recent poll, by Noble Predictive Institutes, found Ford at 38% and Lombardo at 39%. This is one of four public polls that have shown this race as a “dead heat.”

Nevada’s 2026 gubernatorial race is the top Democratic flip opportunity in the country. Multiple independent polls, November 2025 election results, and the strength of our campaign all tell the same story: Governor Joe Lombardo is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in America running for reelection, and Aaron Ford is within striking distance—and gaining.

Other notable findings from these polls:

• Ford leads Lombardo by 24 points among Hispanic voters, a critical voting bloc in Nevada elections.

• Ford has taken significant strides towards closing the gap with Lombardo since last summer, when he was down by 9 points in a poll by The Majority Institute.

• Ford has stronger leads than Lombardo among key groups making up the undecided bloc of voters: women, Latinos, and residents of Washoe County.

As reported recently in the New York Times, Ford “has made pocketbook issues central to [his] campaign.” Pollster Mike Noble also noted, “Ford [is] attacking Lombardo on the pocketbook issues – cost of living, housing, affordability – and then you have Lombardo talking about everything but that." Ford is running on an ‘Affordable Nevada’ platform to bring costs down for working families, speaking to the key concerns of Nevada voters in this election—especially undecideds and Independents.

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KNTV: New poll finds race for Nevada governor tightening

• Ford has criticized Lombardo for vetoing bills that Ford claims would have reduced costs for Nevadans, including a bill that would have banned corporations from buying up single-family homes, a concept that even President Donald Trump later adopted in an executive order.

• Noble said economics will be the key to this race. "And I think really from the research we've seen, whoever can message the best when it comes to addressing the pocketbook issues, jobs, economy, inflation, how are they going to keep more money in Nevadans' pockets and give them some type of relief, and especially in affordable housing and other pocketbook areas. I think that is who's going to end up ultimately winning," he said.

Crooked Media: Trump’s unpopularity is also dimming Republican prospects

• Consider Nevada, where Attorney General Aaron Ford, a Democrat, is closing the gap with Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo in their race for governor. Ford currently trails Lombardo by only 3 percentage points, according to a poll commissioned by The Majority Institute, a Democratic Party-aligned firm. Last June, Ford was behind by 9 points.

• What changed? Nevadans are souring on Trump, pollsters Geoff Garin and Aileen Cardona wrote in a memo. Fifty-one percent of voters said that his policies have been mainly bad for the state. And this poll was taken in February — before Trump’s war on Iran spiked gas prices.

• “Voters’ unhappiness with the status quo in Nevada is a clear drag on Lombardo, and his weakness in standing up to Donald Trump on behalf of Nevada continues to be a major liability,” the pollsters write.

The Center Square: Polls shows Lombardo, Ford tied in Nevada gubernatorial race

• Amid skyrocketing gas prices and near all-time high housing valuations, the economy is expected to play a central role in this year’s elections. Gas was at $4.91 a gallon Monday, an increase of more than $1 since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran started a month ago, according to AAA.

• “Latino voters in Nevada are pragmatic, but our polling shows their concerns are nearly unanimous: The cost of living, wages that don't keep up, food prices, health care affordability, and the impact of tariffs on everyday essentials – these are the issues that dominate conversations and will inform their decision come November,” said Leal-Santillan, national director of communications for Somos Votantes.

• “Voters know that under Joe Lombardo, Nevada is suffering from high costs, sky-high unemployment and an economy lagging behind the rest of the nation in job growth — all while Lombardo puts cheerleading for Trump over serving working families,” Ford campaign spokesperson Prerna Jagadeesh said.

• “In contrast, Attorney General Aaron Ford has fought to lower costs and create new good-paying union jobs throughout his time in public service. Ford will continue to be laser-focused on making Nevada a place that Nevadans can afford to call home — and that’s why he will win in November.”

Las Vegas Review-Journal: Lombardo, Ford locked in dead heat in early Nevada governor’s race poll

• A survey of 845 registered Nevada Voters taken in four days ending March 13 showed Lombardo with 39 percent support if the election were held today and Ford with 38 percent, wrote Noble Predictive Insight in the Nevada Public Opinion Pulse poll.

• That single percentage point difference falls well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percent, making the race a toss-up.

• Ford would likely benefit from the demographic makeup of the undecided voters driving the undecided bloc: independents, moderates, Latinos, women and Washoe County’s electorate.

• [Ford] He led among Latinos by 24 percentage points, Washoe County voters by 12 percentage points and women by 6 percentage points, the poll said. Lombardo led among Independents and moderates by 6 and 2 percentage points, respectively.

• “Ford currently has stronger leads among more of these groups than Lombardo,” the polling firm said

KLAS: Two New Polls Continue to Show a Very Tight Race for Nevada Governor

• “Two new polls continue to show a very tight race for governor in Nevada. The first from noble predictive insights shows Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo with a one-point lead over his main challenger. and that's Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.”

The New York Times: A Downturn in Las Vegas Could Signal Tough Times for the Nation

• Pain in Las Vegas, a sequin-draped economic indicator, tends to signal a malady in the nation at large. “Some say when the country gets a cold, we get the flu,” said Aaron Ford, Nevada’s attorney general. “I say we get pneumonia.”

• Mr. Ford, a Democratic governor hopeful… has made cost-of-living concerns the centerpiece of his campaign, and he has criticized Mr. Lombardo for presiding over one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates.

• Mr. Ford has sought to link Mr. Lombardo to the president’s unpopular policies, arguing the governor should have done more to insulate Las Vegas and the rest of the state from the effects of tariffs and rising gas prices.

• “As governor you should be utilizing your position to serve those who put you in office,” Mr. Ford said.