NEW: Crystal Ball and Silver Bulletin Move Nevada Governor’s Race To Toss-Up

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Changed NV Gov Rating From “Lean Republican” To Toss Up, Following Silver Bulletin and Cook Political Report Rating the Race a “Toss Up”

Today, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved their rating for Nevada Governor’s race from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” in yet another sign of Attorney General Ford’s growing momentum in the gubernatorial race that’s considered the top Democratic flip opportunity in the country. The new Crystal Ball rating follows Silver Bulletin also changing their rating of this race from “lean Republican” to “toss up”, and the Cook Political Report also having classified the race as a toss up since the beginning. 

Recent polls have also captured Ford’s surge: an early September Emerson poll showed him leading Lombardo by 2 points and winning Latinos by an overwhelming 31 points, and last week another poll showed the race tied. 

“Today’s Crystal Ball rating change is more proof that momentum is decisively on Attorney General Ford’s side as Nevadans align around his message of making the Silver State a place folks can truly afford to live,” said Zoë Kleinfeld, Campaign Manager at Ford for Governor. “Joe Lombardo’s $30 million in misleading attack ads have proven powerless against the simple truth: under Lombardo Nevadans can’t afford groceries, gas, housing, or health care. They are fed up with the failed Lombardo-Trump economy, and they see a better future for themselves under Aaron Ford. As a battle-tested fighter for working families who’s sued Trump over 60 times, cracked down on violent crime, and put money back in Nevadans’ pockets, Attorney General Ford is the change agent Nevadans need – and want.”

Ford’s surge despite being outspent 10:1 is a clear indicator that his aggressive focus on lowering costs and ending the Lombardo-Trump affordability crisis is resonating strongly with Nevada voters who are struggling to afford groceries, gas, health care, and housing. Meanwhile, Lombardo is focused on taking care of Trump’s “billionaire friends” who are bankrolling his campaign and jacking up Nevadans’ prices. In contrast, as Attorney General, Ford has been laser-focused on fighting crime and taking on greedy corporations that are jacking up prices on Nevadans and is running for Governor on a platform of lowering costs on day one – proposing policies to make things cost less and create good-paying jobs. 

Nevada’s 2026 gubernatorial race is the top Democratic flip opportunity in the country. Multiple independent polls, every special election since the 2024 general election, and the strength of our campaign all tell the same story: Governor Joe Lombardo is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in America running for reelection, and Aaron Ford is gaining momentum.

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