Polling Shows Tied Race, Ford Gaining Momentum As Lombardo Remains “Concerned” About Re-Election
New polling shows Aaron Ford gaining momentum with less than 100 days until election day. Despite Joe Lombardo and his allies having spent $27 million to date, including over $15 million on advertising to beat General Ford, the race has only tightened in recent months and is now a dead heat at 44 percent to 44 percent between Ford and Lombardo. Meanwhile, Ford has not started spending significant resources on paid communication and has ample room for growth.
In a head-to-head matchup, Ford and Lombardo are tied 44 percent to 44 percent, with 12 percent of voters not sure.
45 percent of voters have “an unfavorable opinion” of the governor – including 68 percent of Latino voters – compared to just 39 percent with “a favorable opinion.”
54 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance compared to 43 percent that approve of his job performance.
The results are a significant warning sign for Lombardo as polling also finds Trump is deeply underwater in Nevada and voters, especially Latinos, are seriously concerned about Lombardo's refusal to stand up to Trump.
Throughout his second term, Trump has especially struggled with Latino voters, an essential voting bloc in Nevada, as his approval rating has fallen by double digits since taking office.
Every public poll has shown this race as a “dead heat.” Lombardo’s support with Latino voters, an essential voting bloc in Nevada, is below average with Ford consistently leading by double digits.
Polling also shows that 77 percent of Latino voters think Lombardo isn’t doing enough to stand up to Trump.
This latest polling data affirms why Joe Lombardo told reporters he was “concerned” about his odds of re-election and cements his place as the most vulnerable incumbent governor up for re-election this November.
Joe Lombardo “Is Going to Have to Wear” the Economic Harm Being Done by The Trump Administration
Throughout his career, Ford has been an independent thinker and a bipartisan problem solver. While Ford relentlessly focuses his campaign on the economy and proposing policies to make things cost less, Joe Lombardo has focused his campaign on culture war issues and his unyielding allegiance to Donald Trump, going as far as calling Trump his “commanding officer.” After the 2024 election, Trump credited Lombardo for helping deliver Nevada for him. Trump returned the favor by endorsing Lombardo last fall. For Lombardo, Trump is his “guy”. Lombardo even called Trump “the greatest president.” Lombardo is inextricably tied to Trump and will have to own everything that the second Trump administration has done to hurt Nevadans.
Lombardo Endorses Trump’s Economic Agenda: After helping Trump get elected and touting his endorsement, Lombardo has embraced Trump’s cost-raising agenda. Following the start of the war in Iran — amid skyrocketing gas prices, utility bills and health care costs – Lombardo backed the war and said Trump’s doing a “fantastic job.” While Lombardo called Trump the “greatest president” and falsely claimed “our economy is moving in the right direction,” under the Lombardo-Trump economy, Nevada families have had to spend an extra $2,900 on average for things like food, energy and health care. Lombardo called passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will slash health care for 115,000 Nevadans and has already cut SNAP for nearly 80,000 Nevadans, a “huge win” and said Nevadans should be “excited.”
Tourism and Tariffs: As Trump’s trade war pummels Nevada’s economy and tourism industry, Lombardo told reporters that Nevadans need to “feel a little pain” from Trump’s tariffs. Lombardo opposed the Trump administration issuing refunds to Nevadans for costs incurred by Trump’s illegal tariffs and even said it would be “malpractice” to stand up against Trump’s erratic trade agenda.
2026 had a disastrous start according to the January Gaming Control Board report that showed Las Vegas Strip gaming revenue dropped a stark 11 percent in the first month of the year.
Las Vegas saw a 2.2 percent year to year decrease in visitors from January 2025 to January 2026.
This month, a report came out that spending at Nevada small businesses has decreased by $4.3 billion and in the first 8 months of Trump’s trade war, retail prices for imported goods are nearly 7 percent higher and domestic goods are 4.9 percent higher for the average American.
Research shows that families have had to spend $2,900 more on basics under Trump as a result of his ruinous policies that Joe Lombardo has supported.
Trump’s tariffs alone, which Lombardo supports, increased costs by $1,700 for the average Nevada family as of February 2026.
Unemployment: Under Trump and Lombardo, Nevada has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation at 5.1 percent and Trump’s Lombardo-backed policies only threaten to keep that number growing as tourism and travel to the state continue to nosedive.
In the words of Nevada journalist and political guru Jon Ralston: Joe Lombardo “is going to have to wear” the harm being done by the Trump administration.
After Months of Scandal Surrounding Lombardo’s Cover Up for Elon Musk, His Campaign is Flailing and Desperate After Suffering Major Self-Inflicted Gaffes
Joe Lombardo’s campaign has gotten a rocky start to the general election suffering major gaffe after major gaffe while Ford gains major momentum in his campaign. Lombardo’s campaign has stooped to desperate new lows including launching debunked attack ads, paying workers to lie about Ford’s record, lying about campaign support, and using taxpayer dollars to attack political opponents.
In a viral moment, Joe Lombardo was caught abusing his public office and name-dropping his way out of a ticket, sparking coverage everywhere from Associated Press to Fox News to The New York Times to TMZ. This prompted a Reno resident to file an ethics complaint against Lombardo and a local reporter to conclude that he needed to “fix” his campaign.
In an embarrassing unearthed video, a worker featured in Better Nevada PAC's attack ad admitted that he “did it for the money” and “ended up voting for [Aaron Ford] anyway.” Shortly before the video was discovered, a fact check by KTNV ruled that “the accusations that appear in some of the [Better Nevada PAC’s] ads aren't true.”
In recently leaked audio, Lombardo was caught calling Donald Trump his “commanding officer" in regards to dealing with ICE just days after Nevadans watched in horror as Trump’s rogue ICE agents beat an elderly man at the airport.
After Joe Lombardo touted his “Democrats for Lombardo” sham, a member of the group came forward saying Lombardo added his name despite the fact that he’s supporting Aaron Ford for governor. A KTNV reporter remarked, “Turns out this Democrat for Lombardo is really a Democrat for Ford!”
Earlier this year, Lombardo admitted that he’s “not enough of a motivator” to turn out voters this fall. Following this admission, Lombardo hinged his campaign on a trans ballot initiative that eventually failed to make it onto the November ballot, calling it his “vote-getter”
Lombardo is also facing a massive corruption scandal involving his office covering up for Elon Musk after multiple Clark County firefighters suffered from chemical burns in one of the tunnels operated by Musk’s The Boring Company. Lombardo’s office let Musk’s company off the hook within twenty four hours of one of Musk’s top executives lobbying his office, putting the interests of the world’s richest man over the health and safety of working Nevadans.
The Bottom Line: As Nevadans count down to Election Day, they are excited about Ford’s plan to make things cost less, and he has room to expand his base. Meanwhile, Joe Lombardo has hit his ceiling and is anchored to Trump as Nevadans face sky-high costs and struggle to afford groceries, gas, and housing.
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